THE WEEKLY 5-COUNT

By Chris Datres

I’m going to get away from the “rule of five” this week since this column is going to be all about my selection of teams for the 2009 NCAA Tournament. But it would be a crime if any college basketball column didn’t start with reaction to Thursday night’s epic 6-overtime marathon between Syracuse and Connecticut. For 70 minutes, both teams slugged it out like it was a 15-round prizefight squared. In the end, you hate to see someone have to lose the game but in my opinion, the right team won that game. Syracuse essentially plays just seven guys on their roster. The rest of the bench consists of walk-ons and practice players. Two of those walk-ons had to play valuable minutes in the final two overtimes. Both of those players acted like they had been part of the rotation all season. Connecticut missed 18 free throws in the game, three straight late in the third overtime that would have put the game to bed. Syracuse, who is notorious for missing free throws at crucial times, sunk 40 of 51 free throws. Connecticut had the ball last in three of the five overtime periods and decided to settle for long jumpers instead of taking it to the basket and trying to draw a foul. And wow, did the game ever change when Hasheem Thabeet fouled out in the fifth overtime. That opened the door for Syracuse to penetrate at will against the UCONN defense, knowing that the brick wall/fly swatter wouldn’t be there to send shots back. One would think that after such a grueling game and not getting back to the hotel until 3am, Syracuse would have nothing for the next night’s game against West Virginia. Uh, wrong. They came out and smacked the Mountaineers in the mouth with 6 3-pointers in the first half in racing out to a 7-point halftime lead. Then they weathered numerous Mountaineer comebacks as well as another overtime to move on to the championship. In the final, they gave it all they could but could only muster 30% from the field in the second half and succumbed to tired legs as they lost to Louisville. Meanwhile, UCONN might have cost themselves a #1 seed which was all but engraved for them just a week ago. More on that…right now.

Since 2002, I’ve sat here the night before Selection Sunday and picked who I think should get in. The last three years, I’ve assigned seeds to them. I’ve never been perfect but in the years I’ve done the seeding, I’ve gotten 40% right on the number and another 45% within one seed of their actual number. This year, choosing the field is probably the toughest it has ever been because outside of maybe six really good teams, the rest is a big blob. That should equal a lot of fun when picking the bracket on Wednesday.

1 seeds - North Carolina, Pitt, Louisville, Memphis
2 seeds - UCONN, Michigan State, Duke, Kansas
3 seeds - Missouri, Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Villanova
4 seeds - Xavier, Washington, UCLA, Gonzaga
5 seeds - Clemson, Syracuse, Illinois, LSU
6 seeds - West Virginia, Purdue, Texas, Florida State
7 seeds - Arizona State, USC, Ohio State, Tennessee
8 seeds - Butler, BYU, Texas A&M, Marquette
9 seeds - Dayton, Oklahoma State, Utah, California
10 seeds - Wisconsin, Northern Iowa, Temple, Boston College
11 seeds - Davidson, Creighton, Maryland, Minnesota/Mississippi State*
12 seeds - Western Kentucky, VCU, Utah State, St. Mary’s
13 seeds - Cornell, Siena, Akron, Cleveland State
14 seeds - Morgan State, American, Southland Champion (Stephen F. Austin), Chattanooga
15 seeds - Portland State, Radford, East Tennessee State, Robert Morris
16 seeds - Alabama State, Morehead State, Binghamton, North Dakota State, CS-Northridge

** If Mississippi State wins the SEC today, they will take out Minnesota in this spot

Now, the method behind my madness. When I first put all the teams on paper, I came up with 57 locks and 8 open spots with 26 teams to fill those spots. I’ve felt the SEC has been a weak conference all year. Therefore, I gave no love to Florida, Auburn, Kentucky, and South Carolina. In the Big Ten, it was very difficult to choose between Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn State. Despite having the worst overall record of the four, Wisconsin finished with the best record against the 3 opponents. Amazingly, Michigan and Arizona were the exact same team - same record, same conference record, same record against the top 25 in the RPI, and same record against the top 50 in the RPI. I didn’t like either team so neither got the nod. As for my picks of Davidson and St. Mary’s, the reason was this - Davidson lost 2 games directly because they didn’t have a healthy Stephen Curry. If they had him for those 2 games and they won them, I think they’d have gotten in on their own merit even with a semifinal conference tournament loss. As for St. Mary’s, this team was a juggernaut when Patty Mills was in the lineup. But as soon as he went out with the broken hand in the first half of the first game against Gonzaga, they became a different team. When he got back, they only had three games to gel again. The committee takes these things into consideration. As for the #1 seeds, Memphis is a top seed, no doubt. You can’t go through the conference like they have and beaten the non-con teams that they have and not deserve a #1 seed. Due to UCONN’s slide and the fact that they’ve lost to Pitt twice this year, they lose out to Louisville, who won the regular season and Big East Tournament championships. If you’re wondering about Penn State, they just didn’t beat anyone of note outside the Big Ten. Next time, they need to schedule a little bit tougher. Playing the likes of NJIT, Hartford, and Towson just won’t cut it. We’ll see how many of these I’ll get right and how many I’ll get within one seed but I feel pretty confident that I’ll get 64 of the 65. You know the committee doesn’t like mid-majors all that much so either Davidson or St. Mary’s likely won’t make the big field.

I’ll be back Tuesday with a little breakdown of each region and give you a couple of pointers on picking a successful bracket.

Got any questions or comments? Feel free to e-mail me at gopens24@aol.com. Who knows, maybe I’ll include your “mailbag” comment in a future 5-Count