THE WEEKLY 5-COUNT

By Chris Datres

1 49 games are in the books and as we hit the Sweet 16 on Thursday night, the favorites have pretty much taken over the party. Only Arizona and Purdue are from outside the original top 16 seeds. Despite my attempts, I haven’t been able to see all 49 games, partly because I was in Philadelphia for the first two rounds. I’m not showing any bias because I was at those games but I think the most impressive team that I saw over the first two rounds was Connecticut. From the start of their demolition of Chattanooga to the buzzer of their annihilation of an equally-overmatched Texas A&M team, the Huskies looked like the team that they were up until Jerome Dyson got hurt at the beginning of February. Purdue and whoever might face UCONN in the future will be well-advised to make sure Jeff Adrien doesn’t get any looks around the free throw line. He lived there in the two subregional games. As for A.J. Price, it’s been a night-and-day difference to last year’s tournament experience when he left their first round loss with a torn ACL. He’s scored 47 points in the two games, which is an abnormally high amount for a point guard, but he’s been finding a lot of wide-open looks from behind the arc in UCONN’s halfcourt sets.

2 Other random things that sparked my interest throughout the first two rounds - Wake Forest and Clemson flamed out pretty quickly. Clemson’s was pretty expected since they have a tendency to do that every year. Wake’s, on the other hand, was a bit of a surprise. But judging by Cleveland State’s style of play, I’m not totally shocked. The key to beating Wake was unearthed by Duke when they went up-tempo in the final 6 minutes of their loss to them in January. Wake had a big lead but kept playing fast and nearly blew the game. Obviously, Wake’s defense wasn’t fast enough to contain the Vikings. Marquette’s coach Buzz Williams lost a lot of points in my book for his actions in the last five seconds of their loss to Missouri. He complained rather loudly and made slight contact with an official while trying to get a one-in-a-million foul call on a leaning 3-point prayer while down by 4. I was going to give him the benefit of the doubt until I read his postgame press comments and he said that he was complaining about the clock situation and also wanted his team to realize what the time-and-score situation was. Sorry, coach, but that’s garbage. I admire the self-control of the official for not making an example of him by giving him a technical. No matter how you slice it, Villanova had an unfair homecourt advantage playing their first two games at the Wachovia Center. Normally, they play four games a year there. This year, they knew that they wouldn’t get to play there in the NCAA Tournament if they played there that many times. So they scheduled three games there and one at the old Spectrum. What I don’t get is why the NCAA let them play there and made Kansas and Missouri, also 3-seeds, travel to Minneapolis and Boise, respectively, when Kansas City was a whole lot closer. That brings me to another complaint about the “pod system” that was adopted a couple years ago. How absurd is it that Florida State and Wisconsin played a game in the EAST Regional in Boise, Idaho. The only thing Boise is east of is Portland, which hosted a SOUTH Regional game between Illinois and Western Kentucky. Come on, NCAA, let’s give up this “pod system” and go back to the way it used to be when eight teams showed up at a site and the two surviving teams would face each other in the regional semifinal.

3 In my Selection Sunday preview, I got 62 of the 65 teams correct but my seeding was way off. The three teams I had in were Davidson, Creighton, and St. Mary’s. So sue me, I like the little guy. I would have replaced Minnesota, Michigan, and Arizona. As it turned out, Michigan and Arizona certainly showed good reason to be included in the field. So to make up for my poor pre-tournament prognostications, I’ve predicted 12 of the sweet 16 teams (Temple, Wake, West Virginia, and Washington spoiling my bid) and still have all 8 intact. My Final Four is Michigan State, UCONN, Pitt, and Carolina with NC beating MSU in a rematch of the blowout at Ford Field earlier in the season.

4 Thursday’s games are UCONN-Purdue, Duke-Villanova, Pitt-Xavier, and Memphis-Missouri. I’m not sure if Purdue is going to know what hit them when they get done with this game. The Boilers have the potential to muck it up a little bit on defense and maybe get a couple of Huskies in foul trouble. But in the end, UCONN is just too big for them and right now, they’re playing the best of anybody. Duke-Villanova has the potential to be an overtime game. I’ve thought all along that Duke would get taken out by a team that shows any balance with their inside and outside games. Had Dexter Pittman not gotten into foul trouble for Texas, I think the Horns would have picked off Duke. Villanova certainly brings that balance to this game. Whatever Jay Wright said to them at halftime of the American game has resonated because they haven’t missed a beat in the 60 minutes since then. I like Nova in a close one. Pitt hasn’t been all that impressive in their two wins thus far. But each time, DeJuan Blair has bailed them out with a timely basket on a putback or Sam Young has rung up a crucial 3-pointer. I see the Xavier game as being a tight one as well but I don’t think the Musketeers have an answer for Blair inside. However, I do think they could get him in foul trouble and that would spell problems for Pitt. I like Pitt…but just barely. As for Memphis-Missouri, I’ve got Mizzou in the upset and here’s why - I think Memphis hasn’t seen a pressure defense all season and Missouri has the personnel that could give Memphis fits bringing the ball up and could force them into some bad shot selections. But one key for Missouri will be to not fall into the same trap they did on Sunday against Marquette and let a big lead get away from them.

5 Friday’s games are Louisville-Arizona, Kansas-Michigan State, Carolina-Gonzaga, and Syracuse-Oklahoma. The only way I can see Arizona’s miraculous run continuing is if Terrence Williams and Earl Clark get some sort of illness and are significantly hampered. Nic Wise has carried the Wildcats through the first two games but I really can’t see how they’re going to handle Louisville’s full-court game. But it’s been a great run for the Cats under interim coach Russ Pennell, who at this time last year was finishing his season as the Arizona State radio analyst. Kansas-Michigan State is an intriguing rematch of a 13-point Spartans win in January. Cole Aldrich is coming off the first triple-double in the Tournament since Dwayne Wade did it in 2003. Sherron Collins has averaged 28.5 points in the Jayhawks’ two tournament victories. So who do you think Spartans coach Tom Izzo will sic his big defensive dogs on? Don’t put it past Izzo and company to turn this into a grudge match that barely gets into the 60’s. In that light, I like the Spartans here. Gonzaga’s only chance against Carolina is if Josh Heytveldt can get Tyler Hansbrough in foul trouble early and if Jeremy Pargo can stay with Ty Lawson on defense. Carolina may be the favorite in this tournament but don’t overlook the amount of talent the Zags have. If they can lock up the Tarheels defensively, they might just return to the Elite Eight for the first time since 1999. As for Syracuse-Oklahoma, I’m not so sure this game is going to get the attention that it deserves. Syracuse’s 2-3 zone totally confused Arizona State on Sunday and if you don’t gameplan for it well enough, you won’t find the spots to attack. Essentially, guard play will be the key in this game as Syracuse boasts three guys in Rautins, Flynn, and Devendorf who can hit the 3 and create a lot on the offensive end. I like Oklahoma to slide through in this game but the Griffin brothers are going to have to negate Syracuse’s rebounding potential.

Got any questions or comments? Feel free to e-mail me at gopens24@aol.com. Who knows, maybe I’ll include your “mailbag” comment in a future 5-Count.

THE WEEKLY 5-COUNT

By Chris Datres

I’m going to get away from the “rule of five” this week since this column is going to be all about my selection of teams for the 2009 NCAA Tournament. But it would be a crime if any college basketball column didn’t start with reaction to Thursday night’s epic 6-overtime marathon between Syracuse and Connecticut. For 70 minutes, both teams slugged it out like it was a 15-round prizefight squared. In the end, you hate to see someone have to lose the game but in my opinion, the right team won that game. Syracuse essentially plays just seven guys on their roster. The rest of the bench consists of walk-ons and practice players. Two of those walk-ons had to play valuable minutes in the final two overtimes. Both of those players acted like they had been part of the rotation all season. Connecticut missed 18 free throws in the game, three straight late in the third overtime that would have put the game to bed. Syracuse, who is notorious for missing free throws at crucial times, sunk 40 of 51 free throws. Connecticut had the ball last in three of the five overtime periods and decided to settle for long jumpers instead of taking it to the basket and trying to draw a foul. And wow, did the game ever change when Hasheem Thabeet fouled out in the fifth overtime. That opened the door for Syracuse to penetrate at will against the UCONN defense, knowing that the brick wall/fly swatter wouldn’t be there to send shots back. One would think that after such a grueling game and not getting back to the hotel until 3am, Syracuse would have nothing for the next night’s game against West Virginia. Uh, wrong. They came out and smacked the Mountaineers in the mouth with 6 3-pointers in the first half in racing out to a 7-point halftime lead. Then they weathered numerous Mountaineer comebacks as well as another overtime to move on to the championship. In the final, they gave it all they could but could only muster 30% from the field in the second half and succumbed to tired legs as they lost to Louisville. Meanwhile, UCONN might have cost themselves a #1 seed which was all but engraved for them just a week ago. More on that…right now.

Since 2002, I’ve sat here the night before Selection Sunday and picked who I think should get in. The last three years, I’ve assigned seeds to them. I’ve never been perfect but in the years I’ve done the seeding, I’ve gotten 40% right on the number and another 45% within one seed of their actual number. This year, choosing the field is probably the toughest it has ever been because outside of maybe six really good teams, the rest is a big blob. That should equal a lot of fun when picking the bracket on Wednesday.

1 seeds - North Carolina, Pitt, Louisville, Memphis
2 seeds - UCONN, Michigan State, Duke, Kansas
3 seeds - Missouri, Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Villanova
4 seeds - Xavier, Washington, UCLA, Gonzaga
5 seeds - Clemson, Syracuse, Illinois, LSU
6 seeds - West Virginia, Purdue, Texas, Florida State
7 seeds - Arizona State, USC, Ohio State, Tennessee
8 seeds - Butler, BYU, Texas A&M, Marquette
9 seeds - Dayton, Oklahoma State, Utah, California
10 seeds - Wisconsin, Northern Iowa, Temple, Boston College
11 seeds - Davidson, Creighton, Maryland, Minnesota/Mississippi State*
12 seeds - Western Kentucky, VCU, Utah State, St. Mary’s
13 seeds - Cornell, Siena, Akron, Cleveland State
14 seeds - Morgan State, American, Southland Champion (Stephen F. Austin), Chattanooga
15 seeds - Portland State, Radford, East Tennessee State, Robert Morris
16 seeds - Alabama State, Morehead State, Binghamton, North Dakota State, CS-Northridge

** If Mississippi State wins the SEC today, they will take out Minnesota in this spot

Now, the method behind my madness. When I first put all the teams on paper, I came up with 57 locks and 8 open spots with 26 teams to fill those spots. I’ve felt the SEC has been a weak conference all year. Therefore, I gave no love to Florida, Auburn, Kentucky, and South Carolina. In the Big Ten, it was very difficult to choose between Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn State. Despite having the worst overall record of the four, Wisconsin finished with the best record against the 3 opponents. Amazingly, Michigan and Arizona were the exact same team - same record, same conference record, same record against the top 25 in the RPI, and same record against the top 50 in the RPI. I didn’t like either team so neither got the nod. As for my picks of Davidson and St. Mary’s, the reason was this - Davidson lost 2 games directly because they didn’t have a healthy Stephen Curry. If they had him for those 2 games and they won them, I think they’d have gotten in on their own merit even with a semifinal conference tournament loss. As for St. Mary’s, this team was a juggernaut when Patty Mills was in the lineup. But as soon as he went out with the broken hand in the first half of the first game against Gonzaga, they became a different team. When he got back, they only had three games to gel again. The committee takes these things into consideration. As for the #1 seeds, Memphis is a top seed, no doubt. You can’t go through the conference like they have and beaten the non-con teams that they have and not deserve a #1 seed. Due to UCONN’s slide and the fact that they’ve lost to Pitt twice this year, they lose out to Louisville, who won the regular season and Big East Tournament championships. If you’re wondering about Penn State, they just didn’t beat anyone of note outside the Big Ten. Next time, they need to schedule a little bit tougher. Playing the likes of NJIT, Hartford, and Towson just won’t cut it. We’ll see how many of these I’ll get right and how many I’ll get within one seed but I feel pretty confident that I’ll get 64 of the 65. You know the committee doesn’t like mid-majors all that much so either Davidson or St. Mary’s likely won’t make the big field.

I’ll be back Tuesday with a little breakdown of each region and give you a couple of pointers on picking a successful bracket.

Got any questions or comments? Feel free to e-mail me at gopens24@aol.com. Who knows, maybe I’ll include your “mailbag” comment in a future 5-Count

THE WEEKLY 5-COUNT

By Chris Datres

1 Last week, I lamented the fact that it seemed no one wanted the #1 ranking. That now pales in comparison to this week where nobody seems to want to cement themselves for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. In the last four days alone, Providence, South Carolina, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Florida, Kentucky, Miami, Maryland, and Utah coughed up opportunities to make themselves look really good. Keep in mind that the NCAA will have to put 65 teams into this tournament so one or two of the aforementioned teams may still get into the draw but they’re not making life easy. On another branch of the same topic, I understand that all the talking heads need something to babble about but with nine days still to go until Selection Sunday, it’s pointless to try to predict the future. Anyone could go on a hot streak and get to the championship game of their conference tournament. Big favorites in the smaller conferences (Memphis, Butler, Gonzaga, for example) could get upset, thus closing the door to an at-large bid. And we all know that everyone needs to win. It’s a pretty obvious statement. So please, just stop it. Let’s not start speculating until next Thursday or Friday when we start getting some resolutions. By the way, I’ll be playing the role of selection committee on the morning of Selection Sunday. I’ve had a decent record the last four years that I’ve done it, admittedly, though, not as good as Joe Lunardi (a.k.a. Joe Lunatic) of ESPN.com who I’m convinced gets inside information so he gets all the teams correct.

2 It’s time for some awards since the regular season is pretty much complete. With apologies to Stephen Curry, Jodie Meeks, Sherron Collins, Patty Mills, A.J. Price, and Eric Maynor, the best guard in the country is North Carolina’s Ty Lawson. He is the fastest person I’ve seen with the ball in his hands…anywhere. All he’s done in his Tarheel career is lead them to a 93-13 record in his three years there, including a Final Four appearance last year. His expert navigation of Roy Williams’s fast-breaking system has benefitted Tyler Hansbrough, Wayne Ellington, and Danny Green. That’s the key to a great point guard - he makes his teammates better. Lawson makes the clutch shots (see Florida State buzzer beater) and he uses his quickness at the defensive end to harass his opponents into 2.1 steals per game. There’s no one else I want handling my offense, especially in crunch time. Unfortunately, he doesn’t get as much press because the scribes are in love with Hansbrough and have been for four years. But if Lawson has to miss any appreciable amount of time, the Tarheels offense would be irrevocably broken.

3 The battle for best big man is a little bit tougher. Hansbrough certainly gets a lot of attention but I think Carolina could survive without him. I extolled the virtues of Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin last week but even with him in the lineup, they got plastered on the road at Missouri (so much for the Tigers not having an answer for him at the defensive end). And for all of his blocks and dunks, I’m really not all that impressed with UCONN’s Hasheem Thabeet. At some point, he’ll polish his offensive skills and he’ll make a lot of money in the NBA because of his “upside”, but as a college player, an experienced big man will take him out of the game every time. And the person I think is the best big man this year is Pitt’s DeJuan Blair. Blair grew up just a half-mile from Pitt’s campus in the Schenley neighborhood. He’s averaging 15 points and 12 boards per game, which includes seven games of over 20 points with over 15 boards. And if he’s out for any stretch of time, Pitt suffers. The Panthers have lost three games this season. In two of those, Blair fouled out. In those three losses, he averaged just 11 points per game. He also poses a huge matchup problem. Marquette had no answer for him on Wednesday night. He ate up Thabeet in Pitt’s win over UCONN two weeks ago. And I think he’ll eat up Thabeet again on Sunday. For all of the success in the last ten years of Pitt basketball, they have never advanced past the Sweet 16. I’d love to see Blair face off with Griffin or Hansbrough somewhere down the line. I think he’d get the better of those matchups.

4 The last three weeks, I’ve spotlighted teams who are a bit under-the-radar and may cause some problems should they get into the NCAA Tournament. And wouldn’t you know it, as soon as I call attention to them, they go in the tank. VMI lost two straight to drop in the Big South standings and will now have to win the tournament on Radford’s home floor if they want to get in. Siena ran into a purple brick wall in Niagara, yielding 100 points in a loss to the Purple Eagles. That won’t bode well if those two face off again in the MAAC title game. Utah State pretty much killed any chance of an at-large bid when they lost on the road to Nevada on Saturday. And it’s not good news with the conference tournament being played on Nevada’s home floor either. Stew Morrill’s crew had better sweep that tourney. So this week, I’m going to shine the light on a team who could get knocked out of their conference tournament as early as Saturday. The Virginia Commonwealth Rams have a history in the Big Dance, knocking off Duke in the first round a couple of years ago. Led by red-hot young coach Anthony Grant (who’s rumored for just about every open job right now), the Rams play an up-tempo style quarterbacked by senior point guard Eric Maynor, who made the shot to beat the Dukies in 2007. Inside, they’ve resurrected an HBO series to clean up the glass. Larry Sanders grabs 8 rebounds per game and gobbles up a couple blocks per night at the defensive end. VCU’s problem is that they don’t have any marquee wins outside a tepid Colonial Athletic Association. Remember, this is the same conference that gave the world George Mason. Unfortunately, the CAA isn’t sneaking up on anyone anymore, thus VCU was beaten in four of five “big games” outside the conference. Given the right matchup, they could spring a repeat of their 2007 upset but it would have to be a team that plays slow and doesn’t like to be sped up, like a Big Ten team.

5 Not to go off on a mini-rant here but I’m getting sick and tired of watching games and seeing players get away with more traveling violations than the executives in the automobile industry. I admit that now that I’ve been a high school official for four years, I watch games a little bit differently and I’ve seen too many missed walk calls. College basketball has quickly become the NBA in the sense that the officials either let it go or are just too blind to see it.

BONUS
Here’s the last 3-point viewer’s guide of the year since I don’t recommend watching NIT games and I don’t need to tell you where to find the NCAA Tournament games.
UCONN at Pitt (Saturday, Noon, CBS): Don’t look now but if Louisville gets hot and sweeps through the Big East Tournament, the loser of this game might get their #1 seed snatched away.
Duke at North Carolina (Sunday, 4pm, CBS): It’s senior day at Chapel Hill and they’re honoring Tyler Hansbrough. How long will that standing ovation last? Five minutes? Ten? I really don’t see any way that the Dukies spring the road upset here.
Pick a game (Thursday, all day, about 7 different networks): If you have some extra leave time to burn, use it here and on Friday. The Big East, ACC, Conference USA, SEC, Big Ten, Pac 10, Mountain West, Big XII, and Atlantic Ten will be playing all day beginning at noon and going until about 2am (there’s a guaranteed overtime game in the Pac 10, you know it). Call Domino’s, stock up on the beer, and sack out all day on the couch with the remote and maybe two or three TV’s.

Got any questions or comments? Feel free to e-mail me at gopens24@aol.com. Who knows, maybe I’ll include your “mailbag” comment in a future 5-Count.

THE WEEKLY 5-COUNT

By Chris Datres

1 I’m going to start this week with the loneliest number. Apparently, nobody wants to be saddled with the number to the left of their name this year. Carolina, UCONN, Pitt, and Oklahoma have had chances to hold on to it and they cough it away. Fortunately, college basketball is a sport that decides its champion on the court instead of through some fraudulent computer program. So basically, the rankings are just for the media and sports information people to get excited about. They mean absolutely nothing. However, if this continues to be a trend as we move into the Big Dance, I’ll be studying those 8-9 seeds pretty closely to see if any of them can pull a second-round upset.

2 The dreaded I-word reared its ugly head to two teams this week. Oklahoma’s stud big man, Blake Griffin, got knocked woozy early in the Sooners game against Texas Saturday night. He missed that game along with Monday’s game against Kansas. Not surprisingly, OU lost both games. It’s unknown when Griffin will return but based on these two results, it’s pretty obvious that the Sooners are not 1-seed material if he’s not out there. Wednesday night, Marquette lost their point guard, Dominic James to a broken foot which will cost him the rest of the season. It’s funny to say this but I think Marquette will be just fine without James. Hear me out. I’ve seen a few Marquette games this year and in every one of them, I’ve watched James and wondered what is going through his head with his shot selection. He might be the point guard, but he isn’t exactly the best decision-maker out there. And amazingly, he’s only a 46% free throw shooter. Marquette will have to get by a little bit more with their defense but as long as they don’t get into a track meet with someone in which they need to score points, they’ll do okay.

3 I touched on Memphis last week and I’m going to go further in-depth on them now. After Thursday’s win over UAB, they’ve won 19 in a row overall and 55 in a row in Conference USA. Granted, C-USA doesn’t have the most competitive of teams but anytime you can go through nearly three full seasons undefeated, it’s an amazing feat. So what might be the blueprint to beating the Tigers? Last year, I thought that if a team could wall off the lane to stop penetration and force them to become jump shooters, they’d stand a better chance. That’s not the case this year. I believe a team like UAB is the formula for success - quick, athletic defenders who also play physical and a couple of dead-eye shooters. The problem for the Blazers on Thursday night was that one of their dead-eye shooters was firing blanks. Robert Vaden went 0-for-17 from the field. This is a guy who averages 18.5 points per game and he couldn’t find the ocean while standing on the pier. As a result, Memphis could be looking at a #1 seed if it wins its remaining 3 regular season games and the C-USA Tournament. Considering the personnel that the Tigers lost last year, this should earn John Calipari some votes for national coach of the year.

4 Looking across the landscape of the country, I’m running out of under-the-radar teams that might show up in the 10-thru-13 seed line that could be a first-round upset winner. ESPN’s concocted Bracketbusters event was held last weekend and it didn’t flush out too much. Utah State is currently 26-3 but because they play in the WAC and because they haven’t really beaten anyone of note outside the conference, they’ll probably show up in the tournament as a double-digit seed. But don’t sleep on them just because they don’t play a Murderer’s Row schedule. Stew Morrill’s squad has been to the Tournament five times this decade and this year, they’re led by 6-9, 240-pound senior bruiser Gary Wilkinson, who is averaging 17 points per game. But where they’re lacking is on the boards. They aren’t in the top-100 nationally and got beat hard off the boards in their 11-point loss to St. Mary’s last Saturday. As usual, my recommendation will be based on their matchup in the first round if they get there.

5 It felt like a trip in the Wayback Machine on Saturday when I flipped on the Carolina-Maryland game and saw the Terps wearing gold jerseys. For a long time, they went with gold as a predominant color at home until Gary Williams got to town. Seeing those jerseys reminded me of Len Bias swooping across the lane with his huge wingspan and laying one in or snatching one off the glass. Something must have worked because the Terps rode Greivis Vasquez’s triple-double to an overtime win. Unfortunately, they couldn’t sustain it Wednesday night as they lost to Duke. Maryland currently sits at 17-10 and Williams has been receiving some heat from the DC-area press about his recruiting practices and his not being able to land the top talent. Let’s not forget that he won the 2002 National Championship with a group that wasn’t too heralded when they came out of high school.

BONUS Here’s your 3-point play viewer’s guide for the next seven days: Marquette at Louisville (Sunday, Noon, CBS): This isn’t the type of game that the Eagles can hide James’s injury as the Cardinals will go full-court for all 40 minutes. Don’t count Louisville out of the #1 seed talk because if they can sweep their way to a Big East Tournament title, they might snatch it. Missouri at Kansas (Sunday, 2pm, CBS): Mike Anderson has his Tigers as the quietest top-10 team this season has seen. But if you haven’t seen them, you’ve got to check them out in this game. They’re a high-octane team that employs the old Nolan Richardson 40 Minutes of Hell defense. They captured the last meeting with the hated Jayhawks on a last-second shot. Oklahoma at Missouri (Wednesday, 9pm, ESPN): You think this is a big week for the Tigers? Should they beat the Jayhawks and then top the Sooners, they’ll likely sew up the #1 seed for the Big XII Tournament. I’m not sure you could have found more than 10 people outside of Columbia that thought that was possible. This could also be the return of Blake Griffin to the OU lineup and I can tell you that Missouri doesn’t have an answer for him on the defensive end if Griffin is 100 percent healthy.

Got any questions or comments? Feel free to e-mail me at gopens24@aol.com. Who knows, maybe I’ll include your “mailbag” comment in a future 5-Count.